Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly affected mortality worldwide. There is unprecedented urgency to understand who is most at risk of severe outcomes. A new online tool helps to estimate an individual’s risk of dying from COVID-19 depending on where they live in the United States, which could provide useful information on which individuals should be prioritized for early vaccinations. The calculator developed at Johns Hopkins University incorporates a variety of factors, including age, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic conditions, underlying medical conditions such as obesity, diabetes or cancer, and local pandemic intensity to produce estimates of adults’ COVID-19 mortality risk.
The original study was conducted in the UK and the risk score was adopted to U.S. settings by information on mortality rate by age and various race/ethnicity groups published by the Center for Disease Control. The model has been validated based on tens of thousands of recently observed deaths and projected risks across U.S. cities and counties.
Stay the course, stay well, mask up and stay tuned!